Growth in total active inventory has been my favorite story for housing in 2025, but that inventory growth has slowed recently, and today’s Housing Market Tracker will focus on why. Inventory growth was running at 33% year over year a few months ago, but it dropped to 17.66% last week. Let’s find out what happened. […]
Why has housing inventory growth slowed? Read More »
Mortgage spreads are the hero of housing in 2025, quietly helping housing demand pick up even when nobody else notices. What are mortgage spreads? In the slow dance between the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rates since 1971, the mortgage spread is the distance between them — the key variable keeping them close or distant.
Mortgage spreads are the hero of the 2025 housing market Read More »
Existing home sales have shown year-over-year growth for two consecutive months, as mortgage rates have remained below 6.64% for the same period. However, let’s remember that the bar is very low for yearly growth. In fact, for many months, I’ve said that the reports coming out from June to October — which will be reported
Existing home sales show year-over-year growth again Read More »
Following another decline in mortgage rates, mortgage applications increased 0.6% from one week earlier, per data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)’s weekly mortgage applications survey for the week ending Sept. 19, 2025. Without adjusting for seasonality, the index increased 0.1% compared with the previous week. A key driver of applications was the refinance share
Mortgage applications increase as rates fall to 12-month low Read More »
Mortgage rates fell to almost 6% just before the Fed announcement on rate cuts, then rose slightly to close out the week. Have lower mortgage rates already changed the housing market? Yes. Housing data started to change in our weekly Housing Market Tracker in mid-June and I’m writing this weekend’s tracker a bit differently to
Have lower mortgage rates already changed the housing market? Read More »
Mortgage rates have had a wild ride since Fed Chair Jerome Powell started talking at the Fed press event Wednesday, rising 15 basis points today. However, I think the bond market responded appropriately after the Fed meeting, and on Thursday morning. Why? Even though the Fed lowered rates, the tone of the press conference was
Mortgage rates go wild following Fed rate cut and Powell remarks Read More »
Lower mortgage rates prompted mortgage applications to increase 9.2% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)’s weekly mortgage applications survey for the week ending Sept. 5. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. On an unadjusted basis, the index decreased 3% compared with the previous
Mortgage applications jump nearly 10% as rates drop Read More »
Now that jobs week is over, we are all left with one truth: it really is about the labor market over inflation data when it comes to mortgage rates, which hit a fresh year-to-date low after Friday’s terrible jobs numbers. The question now is whether mortgage rates can drop below 6% and stay there with
Can mortgage rates get below 6% with this Federal Reserve? Read More »
Have lower mortgage rates altered the dynamics of the housing market based on our data? Now that August has come to an end, it’s clear that they have — and the results have surprised me. In recent years, it has typically taken sustained mortgage rates of around 6% to impact housing data. However, I noticed
Lower mortgage rates pushed inventory lower in August Read More »
We’ve reached fresh new year-to-date lows in mortgage rates after Jerome Powell, speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Summit on Friday, suggested that the labor market may be more important than inflation for the time being. If only someone had been saying that for a few years! All jokes aside, mortgage rates have been trending
Mortgage rates hit year-to-date lows after Powell comments Read More »